Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -300 LAF +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -11.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -10.0 (-2.0) | 128.0 (-8.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -7.0 (+1.0) | 127.0 (-7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -7.5 (+0.5) | 126.4 (-6.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -8.2 (-0.2) | 126.7 (-6.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | DREX 69 – 48 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#188) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#272) | -2.58 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#229) | -3.90 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#239) | 0.413 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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