Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | LAF +250 DREX -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +21 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -1.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -1.6 (-19.4) | 129.1 (-12.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.0 (-20.0) | 123.2 (-6.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -0.5 (-20.5) | 124.7 (-7.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.4 (-19.6) | 126.3 (-9.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | DREX 64 – 56 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#292) | -1.1 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#330) | -0.42 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#331) | -0.73 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#338) | 0.442 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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