Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -138 HOF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.2 (+2.8) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.9 (+3.1) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.3 (+2.7) | 141.8 (+16.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.9 (+2.1) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 66.9 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#208) | 3.1 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#234) | 2.55 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#243) | 2.93 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#144) | 0.685 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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