Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -200 RICH +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -2.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.1 (+19.9) | 150.3 (+6.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.9 (+20.1) | 148.5 (+8.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.2 (+19.8) | 147.6 (+9.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.9 (+20.1) | 149.4 (+7.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | RICH 72 – 69 TOL |
| Mar 17, 2021 | RICH 76 – 66 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#193) | 3.1 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#219) | -0.97 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#245) | -0.55 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#170) | 0.465 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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