Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -4.9 (-1.9) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -4.7 (-1.7) | 148.1 (-7.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -5.4 (-2.4) | 150.6 (-9.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -5.3 (-2.3) | 151.7 (-10.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | TOL 90 – 67 RICH |
| Mar 17, 2021 | RICH 76 – 66 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#96) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#142) | 1.95 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#116) | 2.19 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#142) | 0.591 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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