Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -110 TOL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -0.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.9 (+10.9) | 153.0 (-11.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.4 (+10.4) | 150.5 (-8.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.6 (+10.6) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.2 (+11.2) | 153.5 (-11.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | TOL 90 – 67 RICH |
| Dec 11, 2021 | RICH 72 – 69 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-9 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 6-5 | 15-4 |
| Home | 6-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | 8.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#76) | 0.94 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#72) | 1.35 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#58) | 0.559 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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