Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SLU -2000 TNST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -13.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -10.0 (+7.0) | 153.0 (-10.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -14.8 (+2.2) | 152.9 (-9.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -9.3 (+7.7) | 150.4 (-7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -10.1 (+6.9) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#92) | -1.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#63) | 0.06 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#52) | 0.13 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#26) | 0.423 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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