Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +19 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -12.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -9.9 (+9.1) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -8.9 (+10.1) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -9.0 (+10.0) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -10.0 (+9.0) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SMU 93 – 80 TA&M |
| Nov 15, 2023 | TA&M 79 – 66 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#104) | -2.0 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#127) | -0.75 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#121) | -0.87 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#213) | 0.456 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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