Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | SMU +192 TA&M -235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +13 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -8.4 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -5.1 (-18.1) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.7 (-20.7) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.3 (-17.3) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SMU 93 – 80 TA&M |
| Dec 1, 2022 | TA&M 83 – 64 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#45) | 9.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#111) | 2.20 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#110) | 3.15 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#221) | 0.688 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 47.5 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 43.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 39.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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