Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IU -225 UNC +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | IU -14.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -12.7 (-0.7) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -10.9 (+1.1) | 155.8 (-13.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -13.2 (-1.2) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -11.7 (+0.3) | 154.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#4) | 10.6 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#17) | 1.97 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#19) | 3.52 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#145) | 0.634 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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