Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +100 UNCW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.1 (+2.1) | 129.5 (-11.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.5 (+1.5) | 127.6 (-9.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.4 (+0.4) | 132.8 (-14.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.7 (+1.7) | 132.5 (-14.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2021 | UNCW 65 – 53 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#327) | 1.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#212) | 1.85 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#169) | 3.06 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#255) | 0.627 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.1% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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