Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -1000 JAX +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -8.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -10.1 (+8.9) | 141.1 (-0.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -9.9 (+9.1) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -8.6 (+10.4) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -9.5 (+9.5) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#46) | 7.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#182) | 2.01 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#210) | 3.42 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#146) | 0.642 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 25.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
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