Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -450 OKST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -21.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -16.6 (-6.6) | 145.5 (-7.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -14.6 (-4.6) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.6 (-6.6) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -16.9 (-6.9) | 144.1 (-6.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#2) | 6.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.32 (#2) | -0.07 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.06 (#1) | 0.44 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#17) | 0.510 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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