We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–8 on winners spread MAE 8.5 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bellarmine @ Kentucky +20.3 143.9 90% 41–60 ✓
Maryland @ Louisville -10.6 136.4 18% 79–54 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Carolina Central +3.1 147.7 59% 66–79 ✓
South Carolina State @ East Carolina +13.8 152.9 88% 73–68 ✗
UAlbany @ American University +11.7 137.6 86% 62–88 ✓
Old Dominion @ Charleston +7.8 150.3 78% 60–75 ✓
Massachusetts @ South Florida -0.6 134.2 37% 73–67 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Duquesne +7.2 142.9 78% 61–72 ✓
Brown @ Central Connecticut +1.7 135.0 54% 59–51 ✗
Charlotte @ Davidson +2.2 132.9 60% 68–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Miami (OH) +3.3 146.1 58% 78–95 ✓
Queens University @ Bowling Green +1.1 144.0 54% 72–66 ✗
VMI @ Presbyterian +3.6 136.6 63% 57–72 ✓
William & Mary @ NC State +17.8 148.4 88% 64–85 ✓
Penn State @ Clemson +1.0 136.5 50% 94–101 ✓
Syracuse @ Illinois +18.8 150.3 89% 44–73 ✓
Norfolk State @ Houston +23.2 130.3 91% 52–100 ✓
Weber State @ Tarleton State +13.8 143.3 87% 65–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Kansas City +4.5 130.2 65% 75–65 ✗
Montana @ Southern Miss +17.2 130.7 89% 54–64 ✓
Missouri @ Wichita State +1.8 144.3 50% 88–84 ✗
Baylor @ Marquette +5.1 158.8 66% 70–96 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Boise State +15.2 133.2 87% 46–55 ✓
Alcorn State @ Grand Canyon +5.7 130.8 68% 72–80 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Iowa +14.2 145.5 87% 65–81 ✓
Wake Forest @ Wisconsin +5.5 136.0 72% 78–75 ✗
Virginia @ Michigan -1.2 137.0 36% 70–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ San Diego State +4.6 139.0 65% 69–72 ✓
Navy @ Lipscomb +2.2 143.0 56% 77–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ Wyoming -4.2 137.8 30% 89–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Binghamton +5.5 138.8 71% 84–70 ✗
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell +19.1 139.6 91% 51–77 ✓
Temple @ La Salle -1.6 136.9 43% 67–51 ✓
Kansas State @ Butler +4.4 139.5 55% 64–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.