Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +110 UNCA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -4.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -1.9 (+11.1) | 151.5 (-6.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.1 (+12.9) | 147.1 (-2.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.1 (+9.9) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.2 (+10.8) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | UNCA 82 – 66 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#174) | 2.2 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#269) | 0.45 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#265) | 0.55 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#269) | 0.536 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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