Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -8.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -8.0 (+8.0) | 136.2 (+11.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -6.5 (+9.5) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.7 (+9.3) | 133.7 (+14.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -7.6 (+8.4) | 133.1 (+14.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2022 | NCCU 79 – 66 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#240) | -6.0 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#106) | -1.11 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#93) | -2.20 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#111) | 0.420 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 21.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 58.5% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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