Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | KC -200 IDST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | KC -7.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -5.4 (-15.4) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.5 (-14.5) | 130.2 (+9.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -5.3 (-15.3) | 130.4 (+9.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -4.7 (-14.7) | 133.0 (+7.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | IDST 68 – 59 KC |
| Nov 23, 2021 | KC 74 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#218) | -2.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | -3.35 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#139) | -4.40 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#62) | 0.307 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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