Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -3.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -3.0 (+9.0) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.5 (+10.5) | 140.6 (-0.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -4.4 (+7.6) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.8 (+9.2) | 139.9 (+0.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#58) | 10.9 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#150) | 4.27 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#151) | 6.83 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#97) | 0.668 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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