Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -163 UCSB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -8.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -8.1 (+2.9) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -5.0 (+6.0) | 138.4 (-5.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -7.2 (+3.8) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -7.3 (+3.7) | 143.1 (-10.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#160) | -1.0 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#97) | -0.95 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#102) | -2.24 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#171) | 0.388 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 84.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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