Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -1000 SYR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +29 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -21.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -20.3 (+8.7) | 149.7 (-32.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -15.9 (+13.1) | 149.0 (-32.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -18.8 (+10.2) | 150.3 (-33.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -20.8 (+8.2) | 148.0 (-31.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#8) | 1.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#59) | -0.66 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#41) | -0.86 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#115) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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