Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -4000 NORF +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +48 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -28.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -28.9 (+19.1) | 131.9 (+20.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -22.7 (+25.3) | 133.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -23.2 (+24.8) | 130.3 (+21.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -28.8 (+19.2) | 129.5 (+22.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 9-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#2) | -1.5 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#17) | 0.08 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#19) | -0.03 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#42) | 0.488 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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