Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -225 WAKE +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -6.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -5.5 (-8.5) | 139.4 (+13.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -5.0 (-8.0) | 134.0 (+19.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -5.5 (-8.5) | 136.0 (+17.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -5.2 (-8.2) | 135.8 (+17.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#98) | 4.3 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#71) | 0.67 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#67) | 0.95 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#70) | 0.539 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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