Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1000 ALCN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -8.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -7.1 (+0.9) | 125.9 (+26.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -6.9 (+1.1) | 131.0 (+21.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.7 (+2.3) | 130.8 (+21.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.0 (+2.0) | 129.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#109) | 1.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#124) | 2.11 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#112) | 3.46 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#96) | 0.621 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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