Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -125 NAVY +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -1.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -1.8 (+3.2) | 142.2 (+16.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.6 (+5.6) | 140.1 (+18.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -2.2 (+2.8) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -2.2 (+2.8) | 143.6 (+15.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#166) | 5.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#105) | 1.72 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#106) | 1.83 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#112) | 0.615 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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