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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbia
@
Marist
|
+8.1 | 137.9 | 77% | 39–52 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Tulane
|
+15.6 | 145.1 | 88% | 60–75 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
UT Martin
|
+11.1 | 141.6 | 85% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Virginia Tech
|
+16.3 | 134.9 | 88% | 57–67 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Mississippi State
|
+23.8 | 130.3 | 90% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
UTSA
|
+3.6 | 136.8 | 62% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Kansas
|
+13.9 | 144.4 | 87% | 55–87 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Arkansas
|
+9.8 | 145.9 | 81% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Milwaukee
|
+3.3 | 136.5 | 61% | 68–84 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
San Diego
|
+3.6 | 147.4 | 63% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Northwestern
|
+12.4 | 127.0 | 86% | 87–58 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
Washington
|
-2.1 | 142.9 | 36% | 66–77 | ✗ |
Cal Poly
@
Pacific
|
+10.4 | 149.1 | 82% | 62–58 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
Nevada
|
-1.5 | 130.6 | 31% | 60–78 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
St. John's
|
+22.1 | 149.5 | 91% | 68–95 | ✓ |
Furman
@
App State
|
+1.2 | 145.6 | 52% | 65–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.