Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | APP +240 FUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -0.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.3 (-5.3) | 145.1 (-19.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.2 (-2.8) | 141.2 (-15.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.2 (-5.2) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.7 (-4.7) | 146.6 (-20.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | FUR 73 – 65 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#225) | 3.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#223) | 0.17 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#229) | 0.44 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#276) | 0.553 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 80.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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