Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USD -150 LONG +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | USD -3.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -3.0 (+0.0) | 152.0 (-13.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -1.7 (+1.3) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -3.6 (-0.6) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -3.1 (-0.1) | 148.5 (-9.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#229) | 0.4 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#235) | -1.12 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#191) | -1.62 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#303) | 0.413 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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