Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -8.0 (+5.0) | 145.2 (-10.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.3 (+3.7) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.8 (+3.2) | 145.9 (-10.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -9.3 (+3.7) | 140.7 (-5.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2024 | ARK 65 – 49 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#41) | 5.1 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#40) | 1.14 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#31) | 2.18 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#54) | 0.469 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 83.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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