Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -1000 TROY +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +16 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -2.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.5 (+12.5) | 138.3 (-24.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -4.0 (+12.0) | 137.5 (-23.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.9 (+12.1) | 135.6 (-21.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.8 (+12.2) | 133.5 (-19.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2022 | ARK 74 – 61 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#153) | 8.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#235) | 2.27 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#209) | 3.48 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#200) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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