Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MILW -125 SEMO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MILW -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -1.8 (+14.2) | 138.3 (+13.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -1.1 (+14.9) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -3.3 (+12.7) | 136.5 (+15.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -2.5 (+13.5) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#175) | 3.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#172) | 0.66 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | 0.86 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#78) | 0.506 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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