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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bellarmine
@
UCLA
|
+23.8 | 143.0 | 91% | 60–81 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Lehigh
|
+11.9 | 142.8 | 86% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Gonzaga
|
+3.4 | 157.1 | 64% | 84–88 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Fairfield
|
+1.4 | 130.2 | 57% | 56–63 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
New Mexico
|
+18.5 | 152.5 | 90% | 74–98 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Nebraska
|
+6.4 | 136.6 | 75% | 58–75 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-1.6 | 121.9 | 41% | 51–55 | ✗ |
Dartmouth
@
UTSA
|
+4.9 | 142.2 | 66% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Florida
@
West Virginia
|
+7.0 | 150.3 | 78% | 55–84 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
UConn
|
+4.5 | 136.8 | 67% | 53–71 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Portland State
|
+3.6 | 142.9 | 68% | 71–83 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Boston University
|
-4.5 | 144.3 | 30% | 81–70 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Dartmouth
|
-3.4 | 142.3 | 36% | 73–49 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.