Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BU +140 UCD -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -7.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.9 (-7.1) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.4 (-6.6) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -4.5 (-6.5) | 144.3 (+6.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.6 (-6.4) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#223) | 5.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#188) | 1.21 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#194) | 1.55 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#242) | 0.538 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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