Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -8.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -6.9 (+10.1) | 135.9 (-2.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -6.8 (+10.2) | 134.0 (-1.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -6.4 (+10.6) | 136.6 (-3.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -6.8 (+10.2) | 137.2 (-4.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-11 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#158) | -7.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#176) | -2.51 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#153) | -2.78 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#127) | 0.386 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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