Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DART +130 GRAM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +24 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -4.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -4.3 (-19.7) | 145.3 (-23.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -2.0 (-22.0) | 143.1 (-21.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -3.4 (-20.6) | 142.3 (-20.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -3.2 (-20.8) | 143.4 (-21.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DART | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#292) | -2.6 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#319) | 0.54 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#331) | 1.49 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#259) | 0.543 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DART | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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