Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -200 DART +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DART +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -6.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -5.7 (-6.7) | 143.5 (+11.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -2.3 (-3.3) | 143.0 (+12.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -4.9 (-5.9) | 142.2 (+12.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -6.1 (-7.1) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-8 |
| Home | 8-10 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#293) | -6.6 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | -2.10 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#205) | -3.84 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#265) | 0.441 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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