Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -1000 UNCO +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +24 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -22.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -21.7 (+2.3) | 152.1 (+19.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -16.3 (+7.7) | 156.2 (+15.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -18.5 (+5.5) | 152.5 (+19.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -21.1 (+2.9) | 153.1 (+18.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#59) | -7.9 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#41) | -0.47 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#42) | -1.28 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#86) | 0.526 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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