Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -163 EVAN +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.5 (+5.5) | 131.2 (-12.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.9 (+4.1) | 127.9 (-8.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.4 (+5.6) | 130.2 (-11.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.9 (+5.1) | 130.4 (-11.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 1-19 |
| Home | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#228) | -4.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#246) | -1.34 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#224) | -1.93 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#264) | 0.414 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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