Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW +320 UNT -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +4 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -3.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -2.7 (+6.7) | 121.4 (-15.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.3 (+7.3) | 118.7 (-12.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -1.6 (+5.6) | 121.9 (-15.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.4 (+6.4) | 124.9 (-18.9) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 56.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#174) | 3.6 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#92) | 1.95 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#73) | 2.61 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#66) | 0.622 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.1% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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