Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +4 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -4.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.5 (+1.5) | 158.6 (+13.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -3.5 (+0.5) | 156.0 (+16.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.4 (+0.6) | 157.1 (+14.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -1.7 (+2.3) | 159.6 (+12.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#24) | 7.8 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#39) | 0.62 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#41) | 1.54 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#22) | 0.535 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 44.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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