Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +18 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -7.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.0 (+14.0) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.0 (+14.0) | 133.7 (-9.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.5 (+13.5) | 136.8 (-12.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.7 (+13.3) | 136.6 (-12.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#2) | 12.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#5) | 2.98 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.42 (#2) | 5.15 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#39) | 0.569 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 30.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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