Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -29.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -26.3 (-6.3) | 131.0 (-3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -25.5 (-5.5) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -23.8 (-3.8) | 130.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -27.1 (-7.1) | 128.8 (-0.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#9) | -6.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#6) | -0.73 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.56 (#7) | -1.15 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#11) | 0.455 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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