Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -225 CP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -14.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -10.5 (-14.5) | 147.3 (-27.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -8.7 (-12.7) | 144.0 (-24.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -10.4 (-14.4) | 149.1 (-29.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -10.7 (-14.7) | 150.1 (-30.1) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 8-25 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 1-18 |
| Home | 7-10 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 59.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#201) | -8.6 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#314) | -1.74 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#254) | -2.10 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#341) | 0.352 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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