Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VT -21.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -18.0 (-8.0) | 131.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -13.7 (-3.7) | 130.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.3 (-6.3) | 134.9 (-10.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -16.1 (-6.1) | 134.1 (-10.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#54) | -6.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#23) | -0.64 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#30) | -2.33 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#33) | 0.505 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.4% | 10.4% |
Game Analysis
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