Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -32.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +27 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -29.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -27.0 (-0.0) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -25.3 (+1.7) | 152.1 (+10.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -22.1 (+4.9) | 149.5 (+13.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -27.3 (-0.3) | 150.7 (+12.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 1-15 |
| Home | 11-6 | 2-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#80) | -17.4 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#53) | -2.52 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#67) | -3.83 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#79) | 0.327 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 33.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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