Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -1000 UCI +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -4.4 (-1.4) | 140.3 (+0.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.6 (-1.6) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.2 (-1.2) | 139.3 (+1.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.8 (-0.8) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | SDSU 63 – 62 UCI |
| Nov 28, 2020 | SDSU 77 – 58 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#49) | 12.8 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#54) | 1.99 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#40) | 2.94 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#16) | 0.631 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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