Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +145 UVA -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -6.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.6 (+0.6) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.6 (+1.6) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.2 (-0.8) | 137.0 (+1.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.8 (-0.2) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | 16.2 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#79) | 3.40 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#45) | 5.54 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#119) | 0.644 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 44.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 42.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.