Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -1200 GT +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -17.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -15.0 (+1.0) | 150.0 (-4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -16.0 (-0.0) | 149.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -14.2 (+1.8) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -13.9 (+2.1) | 146.9 (-0.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#23) | 1.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#92) | 0.50 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#86) | 0.88 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#89) | 0.519 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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