Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | USM -400 MONT +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | USM -23.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -18.3 (-8.3) | 129.3 (-11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -14.5 (-4.5) | 126.6 (-8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -17.2 (-7.2) | 130.7 (-12.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -18.4 (-8.4) | 129.0 (-11.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2021 | MONT 74 – 62 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#20) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#8) | -0.49 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#14) | 0.07 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#17) | 0.443 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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