Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +188 BAY -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +26 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -2.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.9 (+20.1) | 158.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.6 (+22.4) | 158.9 (+7.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -5.1 (+20.9) | 158.8 (+7.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -5.6 (+20.4) | 158.7 (+7.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#27) | 16.1 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#62) | 1.78 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#54) | 3.14 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#75) | 0.603 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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