Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UML -1000 MRMK +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +26 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UML -25.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -22.0 (+4.0) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -21.2 (+4.8) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -19.1 (+6.9) | 139.6 (-11.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -18.4 (+7.6) | 136.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2024 | UML 81 – 74 MRMK |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRMK 74 – 68 UML |
| Dec 5, 2021 | UML 61 – 57 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#64) | -12.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#126) | -2.08 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#163) | -2.81 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#102) | 0.380 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 54.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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